Isan still pines for Thaksin, Newin notwithstanding

Isan still pines for Thaksin, Newin notwithstanding
By: Songkran Grachangnetara
Published: 8/07/2009 at 12:00 AM
Newspaper section: News

After six months of the Abhisit administration, the Democrats' political nemesis has struck back with a one-two punch combination evident in two by-election victories over the previously glaringly cocky Bhumjaithai Party. And let me tell you, an insignificant win it certainly was not, despite the by-elections being disingenuously played down by leaders of both the Bhumjaithai and Democrat parties. This victory by the Puea Thai Party amounts to nothing less than the losers having to eat truckloads of humble pie. Thaksin Shinawatra was down for an eight count, to use boxing jargon, but he seems to have gathered himself ready to fight on till the 12th round. And if history has taught us anything, it is that Thaksin is a fighter of the finest calibre, which is bad news for PM Abhisit and wind in the sails for the pro-Thaksin contingent.

As can be expected, the Democrats' strategy in the two by-elections was extremely crafty. By luring Bhumjaithai Party into funding and taking total responsibility for strategy and canvassing, the move allowed the Democrats to share in the expected victory but to escape completely unscathed if the elections resulted in a resounding defeat. I hate to read too much into things, but I have this sneaky feeling that in victory the Democrats would have claimed it was due to the successful policies of the Abhisit administration which convinced the two Isan constituents to abandon Puea Thai and instead vote for Bhumjaithai, the newly formed coalition partner of the Democrat Party.

But now, in eventual defeat, because the Democrats effectively outsourced the two by-elections to Bhumjaithai, investing neither their own financial nor political capital, the Democrats have been able to hide in the long grass, while Newin Chidchob, Mr Abhisit's political buddy, foots the bill and more embarrassingly takes all the blame for two by-election thrashings of the most gruesome kind.

The two by-elections partly dispel one frequently used generalisation of the Isan electorate: that their votes can be bought. Some of the most kind-hearted and genuine people come from the great provinces of Isan, and one of the traits they despise most is insincerity.
I believe the wonderful people of Sakon Nakhon and Si Sa Ket saw through the marketing gimmicks of the Bhumjaithai Party. I'm referring to the "let's pretend to be poor" phony PR strategy where walking in a few paddy fields wearing farm attire, together with spending a few nights in local houses pretending they enjoyed being bitten by blood-thirsty mosquitoes, would win support with local constituents.

Yes, Thaksin was guilty of this too, but the difference is that the former Thai Rak Thai Party actually was the first to implement some of the most far-reaching populist programmes Thailand has ever seen, most of which have been adopted by the present administration. Love him or hate him, Thaksin's populist measures are still regarded by many as the original, while others that followed are viewed as mere cheap imitations.

So, after six months in office, PM Abhisit still has a lot to prove, but time is slowly running out as the next general election looms. In my view, there are two things PM Abhisit should consider doing if he wants to win over the people of the Northeast.

First, the Prime Minister should re-evaluate his electoral strategy for the region. There comes a time when crafty political manoeuvres alone will cease to be effective, and purposeful political action will have to take its place.

After the by-election defeats in Sakon Nakhon and Si Sa Ket provinces, the Prime Minister must now realise he has to spend less time trying to become the new darling of the international stage and instead start focusing on the people who will be doing the actual voting in the next general election.

So, as of a few days ago, the Democrats have announced that their Isan roadshow will begin with a visit to the province of Buri Ram, the political stronghold of the Chidchob clan. I am not sure what the strategy is here, but in my view it demonstrates a lack of courage when it comes to winning the hearts and minds of the people of Isan. I suppose Buri Ram will resemble the United States' Green Zone in Iraq where the Democrats can feel protected behind a wall of security, while unleashing their political offensive on the voters of the provinces in Isan.

In my humble opinion, starting the road show in Buri Ram sends the wrong message - the message being that parts of Isan will be outsourced to the recently discredited Bhumjaithai Party and that the Democrats will not commit necessary resources to fight for every vote in Isan, because the odds are there is more chance of my grandmother winning Wimbledon than the Democrats sweeping Isan in the next general election!

Last but not least, PM Abhisit should not have invited Sondhi Limthongkul to host the weekly Sunday prime ministerial talk show, especially after Veera Musikhapong had turned down the same offer. Allowing Mr Sondhi to host the show would be viewed as one-sided at best and at worst extremely divisive, which most likely would lend credence to the claims by the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship that the People's Alliance for Democracy and the Democrat Party have been in cahoots all along.

Luckily for PM Abhisit, the offer was also turned down by Mr Sondhi. Reconciliation will likely suffer from the political machinations of the New Politics Party, the political franchise of the PAD.
I hope the Prime Minister agrees with me that any future coalition between the Democrats and the New Politics Party will really be the proverbial final nail in the coffin for the Democrat Party's electoral advancement in this pro-Thaksin region of Isan. Even though New Politics has attempted to rebrand itself by donning green shirts, many people still believe they are wearing bright yellow under-garments.

I pray the Prime Minister's wisdom prevails and he avoids like the plague any future political cooperation with the New Politics Party, and instead chooses a less divisive and, more importantly, a less repulsive path to electoral success.

In conclusion, PM Abhisit desperately needs the Isan vote to win the next general election, but frankly, Newin Chidchob is not the answer. The real answer lies in PM Abhisit being able to demonstrate to Isan voters that he is sincere and fully committed to alleviating their deep concerns and to convince them that one thing is for certain: Abhisit Vejjajiva is no cheap imitation of Thaksin Shinawatra.

Songkran Grangchangnetara is an entrepreneur. He graduated from The London School of Economics and Columbia University.